Prediction markets saw over $50 billion in volume as World Cup kicked off, crushing traditional sportsbooks

But the regulated U.S. app and the global platform are fundamentally different products. The U.S. version requires full KYC identity verification, is funded through registered futures commission merchants rather than crypto wallets and settles in U.S. dollars. The global platform, still geoblocked for U.S. IP addresses, has no identity checks, settles in USDC and carries a far wider range of markets.

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The $571 million figure refers to Americans trading on that global platform through VPNs and existing crypto wallets. Allium tracked wallet behavior rather than IP addresses, which is how a VPN that defeats geoblocking still leaves U.S. fingerprints in the data.

Kalshi’s breakout moment

Named FIFA’s official prediction market partner part-way through the tournament, Kalshi had branding rights, in-venue presence and a media distribution deal with Fox Sports.Though notably, the user growth was already well underway when Kalshi signed its co-branding deal with ADI Predictstreet, the FIFA World Cup’s official prediction market partner, on June 26, just four days before Apptopia data was recorded. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have advertised heavily during games, with ads airing during the halftime break, as well as the so-called hydration breaks during the American broadcasts.

App data from Apptopia found that by June 30, Kalshi’s daily active users were 36% above their June 15 level. Over the same period, DraftKings fell 36% from its tournament peak, FanDuel dropped 41% and BetMGM and Caesars each declined 32%. Traditional sportsbook apps spiked early and faded, while prediction markets built steadily throughout.