Bitcoin Derivatives Might Not Fully Recover From October Crash Until Q2

In brief

The October 10 crash wiped out $19 billion in open interest.
Bitcoin open interest in futures, options, and perpetual contracts now sits around $140 billion.
Derivatives volumes spiked to $748 billion the day of the big wipeout.

It could take two quarters for Bitcoin derivatives activity to recover from the Oct. 10 flash crash that wiped out $19 billion in open interest, Max Xu, Bybit’s derivatives operations director, told Decrypt.

“While I don’t expect a rapid rebound, the medium-term outlook remains constructive,” he said of the correction that ranks among the largest ever for Bitcoin derivatives. “If macro conditions turn more favorable—for example, rate-cut expectations materialize and market sentiment improves—open interest could gradually return to pre-shock levels by Q1 or Q2 2026.”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was changing hands at $100,800 after having dropped 0.8% in the past day. The world’s first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is now 10.5% lower than it was a month ago, according to crypto price aggregator CoinGecko.

Bitcoin open interest in futures, options, and perpetual contracts now sits around $140 billion, down from $220 billion right before the Oct. 10 crash. Derivatives volumes spiked to $748 billion the day of the big wipeout, but has maintained its usual level around $300 billion for the past week according to CoinGlass.

Data on Deribit, the world’s largest crypto derivatives exchange, shows that there’s a $1.1 billion cluster of bullish call contracts at the $140,000 strike price and another $887 million cluster at the $200,000 strike price in options contracts set to expire Dec. 26. There are still plenty of pessimists, though. There’s a $1.1 billion cluster at the $85,000 price.

The overall reduction in open interest will mean the last monthly expiry of the year could be relatively quiet, Xu said.

“That means we’re likely heading into a year-end expiry with lighter positioning and reduced mechanical pressure, which should help stabilize the market compared with previous high-leverage periods,” he said. “However, activity will likely cluster around key strike levels, and any renewed volatility or ETF-related flows could still drive short-term dislocations. Overall, it’s a healthier setup for the derivatives market heading into 2026.”