Bitcoin Could Drop to $39K Before Bottom, Analyst Warns

Bitcoin is nearly 50% below its record high, keeping traders divided over whether the worst of the bear market has passed.

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Pseudonymous crypto analyst NoName says that despite its recent recovery, Bitcoin (BTC) could still be weeks away from its bear market low.

According to them, an unfilled fair value gap (FVG) above the current price may be completed before a final drop toward the $39,000 to $49,000 range.

Analyst Expects Rally First, Then Final Drop

In a July 28 post on X, NoName said many traders have stopped expecting lower prices because BTC has started to recover, comparing today’s market mood with the periods leading up to the final declines in 2018.

“I saw the same thing in 2018,” the analyst wrote. “People believed in the rally right before the final drop. Sentiment was identical to what I’m seeing right now.”

According to the market watcher, Bitcoin is climbing because there’s an unfilled fair gap value above the market. An FVG is a price zone that gets skipped over during a fast move, which price often comes back to fill before continuing in the same direction.

Many traders see the current move up as the beginning of a bullish reversal, but NoName believes the rally is only part of a larger setup. The analyst expects Bitcoin to first enter and fill the gap before falling immediately, or within one to three days, into what they described as a multi-week search for a bottom between $39,000 and $49,000. Only after those conditions are met will the trader consider turning bullish.

The latest comments follow an earlier post in which the analyst noted that they sold BTC near its 2025 all-time high around $117,000 before the bear market that followed. According to them, market sentiment has changed from “pure euphoria” at the peak to “pure despair” today, and they maintain that the bear market still has “weeks left” before reaching a zone they’d prefer to buy Bitcoin in.

Price Swings Keep Traders Divided

Kalshi has currently assigned a 55% probability that the OG cryptocurrency reaches $50,000 before returning to $100,000, reflecting the continuing uncertainty about the next major move.

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However, some traders like KillaXBT have argued that many investors are becoming overly focused on waiting for Bitcoin to revisit $50,000 or even $40,000, comparing today’s sentiment with 2022, when traders waited for a move to $10,000 that never came. He suggested that accumulating earlier, instead of chasing the exact bottom, has been the better strategy historically.

Bitcoin’s latest price action has done little to settle the debate, with the asset reversing and dropping to around $63,000 ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision just after it had reclaimed $65,000 following a lull in hostilities between the US and Iran. It is down about 3% in the last seven days per CoinGecko data, although over 30 days it has gained more than 5%, while sitting almost 50% below its all-time high of over $126,000 recorded in October 2025.