Bitcoin (BTC) price could fall to $55,000 to find a bottom in August-October, 10x Research says

Bitcoin BTC$61,238.16 likely has further downside ahead before the current bear market runs its course, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen.

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Thielen’s call centers on the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, which historically acts as a headwind for bitcoin. The outlook has been reinforced by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish turn under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets are increasingly debating whether the Fed’s next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut, a backdrop that has supported the dollar and weighed on assets.

Still, Thielen doesn’t expect the downturn to last indefinitely.

Three separate indicators — global liquidity trends, the macro calendar and bitcoin’s seasonal patterns — all point to a potential market low between late August and October.

One model tracking the rate of change in global liquidity, which Thielen said correctly identified a buying opportunity in March and an exit signal in April, points to late August as the next key inflection date. Seasonal patterns also suggest September has historically been a weak month for bitcoin, often followed by stronger performance in October.