Crypto Market Has 'Definitely Not Priced In' Clarity Act Surprise, Says Bernstein - BIF

In brief

Bernstein says markets have not priced in a positive surprise on the Clarity Act.
Republicans revised ethics enforcement and protections for community-bank deposits.
Analysts disagree on the prospects for passage ahead of Tuesday’s procedural vote.

Crypto markets may be underestimating progress on the Clarity Act after Republicans offered concessions on ethics and banking concerns, Bernstein analysts said ahead of a Senate procedural vote tomorrow.

“We reckon any positive surprise is definitely not priced in,” analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in a client note on Monday.

Myriad: Will Congress pass the Clarity Act? Click to make your prediction.

The Clarity Act would establish federal rules for digital assets and clarify the responsibilities of the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Advancing it requires Democratic support, which disputes over officials’ crypto holdings and stablecoin rewards have complicated.

Republican sponsors say their latest draft released on Sunday incorporates 126 changes requested by Democrats, including a role for state attorneys general in enforcing ethics restrictions. President Donald Trump has agreed to the revised restrictions.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R., Wyo.), chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, urged Democrats to back the revised bill, saying Republicans had addressed their demands.

“After a year of intense daily bipartisan negotiations, this bill is ready,” Lummis said in a statement. “Democrats got what they wanted; now they need to take yes for an answer.”

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Earlier language left the ethics provision enforcement, which is primarily focused on President Donald Trump’s crypto ventures, exclusively to the Justice Department. Bernstein said the change, alongside divestment or blind-trust requirements, could persuade some Democrats to support advancing the legislation.

However, some analysts remain skeptical.

“This is not a negotiated deal. Democrats are being presented with the final product,” TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg wrote Monday. He maintained a 25% probability of enactment this year. Beacon Policy Advisors raised its estimate to 30%-40% from below 10% to 30%-40%.

The latest proposal would also let the Treasury restrict stablecoin rewards if they cause substantial withdrawals from community banks. Banking groups argue those payments could draw away deposits used for lending, while crypto advocates want rewards preserved. Both sides have lobbied senators in their home states.

Myriad: Bitcoin price next move? Click to make your prediction. — Myriad: Bitcoin’s next move? Click to make your prediction.

The changes follow a September 10 draft that left ethics provisions largely unchanged while adding registration requirements for crypto trading protocols controlled by people or groups.

If Congress fails to pass the Clarity Act, the CFTC plans to pursue crypto rules using powers it already has. CFTC Chair Michael S. Selig has directed staff to explore those rules, but says legislation would provide protections that future administrations would find harder to undo.