Don’t Trust Bitcoin’s Bounce Now, Analyst Warns Capitulation Is Still Ahead

History suggests that BTC’s biggest leg down is still upon us.

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Bitcoin’s price rebound since the Friday massacre to $59,000 drove the asset north to $64,000 earlier this morning, perhaps driven by some positive developments on the US-Iran war front.

One analyst, though, believes this price recovery is not the full story and warned about another major retracement.

BTC Jumps to $64K

The primary cryptocurrency plunged below $60,000 on Friday for the first time since before the US presidential elections in November 2024. This new local low was the culmination of a weeks-long correction that began in mid-May when the asset was rejected at $82,000.

It managed to rebound to just over $60,000 relatively quickly and bounced to $62,000 over the weekend. It experienced some volatility yesterday evening when Iran struck Israel in retaliation for attacks against Lebanon. However, US President Donald Trump condemned all the strikes and said that his country and Iran might be closer to a peace deal that could be announced in the following few days.

BTC jumped to $64,200 in a promising wick, but was quickly stopped and now sits at around $63,000. Most altcoins followed the fluctuations, leading to another uptick in the liquidations from the futures field. The total value of wrecked positions has risen to well past $600 million daily, shows CoinGlass data. This time, though, short liquidations dominate with $467 million.

Don’t Trust The Pump

Popular analyst Merlijn The Trader predicted BTC’s bounce following the $59,000 low, but cautioned that this is not the full story. He based his analysis on the 2022 bear market, when the cryptocurrency had already retraced hard but then rebounded in a similar manner. However, the actual capitulation was still in play and followed after some investors had already hopped on.

If history repeats now, Merlijn predicted a price surge toward $65,000-$70,000 before the ultimate leg down drives the asset to a proper DCA zone between $48,000 and $59,000.

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The Bitcoin bounce is coming.
Don’t go all-in on it.

Wyckoff Accumulation:
2022: Spring at $15.5K.
Bounce rally to $23K.
Bulls bought the bounce.
Then capitulation.

2026:
Same playbook.
Spring near $50K incoming.
Bounce rally to $65-70K incoming.
DCA zone: $48-59K.… pic.twitter.com/ZJNxHzA1XX

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) June 7, 2026